Oscar predictions

We’re hosting Your Sister’s Anglican priest and his wife tonight for din-din. I’m a little worried how this will go for two reasons:

1. Can they eat lasagna on the Friday after Lent begins? If not, we’ll go out to eat somewhere. I spent an hour last night getting the fixin’s ready. All we have to do is bake the dish.

2. Is he mad because we didn’t get married in his church? Officially, the Anglican church doesn’t recognize our marriage, but he strikes me as the kind of guy to move aside the hardline dogma when dealing with his parishioners. If it’s a real problem (and if it is, why would he come to dinner?) I can take off for a few hours and bowl. Your Sis can show off the house and cover all the pictures of me with cut-out faces of Antonio Banderas.

Since the Oscars run on Sunday, it’s very unlikely there will be another post between now and Sunday night. I love watching the Oscars. I have no idea when I picked it up, but I remember Johnny Carson hosting. I have lots of good memories over the years:

-- The roar of the audience when Daniel Day-Lewis won for My Left Foot

-- David Letterman’s truly funny hosting job, a gig that’s almost universally panned

-- Rob Lowe dancing with Snow White and Corey Feldman trying to dance like Michael Jackson during his “think I’ll be a choreographer” phase.

-- Halle and Denzel winning, the first time black actors have taken the best actor and actress Oscars in the same year.

-- Goldie Hawn mistaking a Kurt Russell flirtation for an engagement proposal

-- Tom Hanks winning for Philadelphia, a moment I, who grew up with his ‘80s comic work, never thought could happen.

-- Morgan Freeman finally winning an Oscar and giving a short thank-you.

Whoopi Goldberg was a far better host than Billy Crystal, whose show-opening medley was brain torture. I have high hopes for Jon Stewart as host this year. He’s easily the finest guy currently on TV and has owned that distinction since Dave Chappelle went nuts.

This year’s crop looks like a solid group of nominees, so let’s look at the big categories with a list taken from Oscars.com. Picking the winners this year will be tricky; for the first time in years, there are no nominees for a handicapped role.

Best Actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Capote"
Terrence Howard in "Hustle & Flow"
Heath Ledger in "Brokeback Mountain"
Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk the Line"
David Strathairn in "Good Night, and Good Luck."

Hoffman seems to have momentum by winning the SAG Award and the Golden Globe for his work. I like the guy, but I was stunned by Heath Ledger’s work; he’s almost unrecognizable. Both are up for homosexual roles, which I think is a first for this category. I want to root for Joaquin, but he can only win if Phillip and Heath split the vote enough to give Phoenix the majority. David only wins if Good Night sweeps. Howard can sit back and enjoy the party.
The probable winner: Hoffman
My pick: Ledger

Best Supporting Actor
George Clooney in "Syriana"
Matt Dillon in "Crash"
Paul Giamatti in "Cinderella Man"
Jake Gyllenhaal in "Brokeback Mountain"
William Hurt in "A History of Violence"

The Academy likes to give consolation Oscars to those who should have won in previous years. Nichole Kidman won for The Hours the year after she lost for Moulin Rouge. Renee Zellwegger won for Cold Mountain after losing the year before for Chicago. I think Giamatti could see a win after failing to receive a nomination for Sideways, a film he carried like a champ. Jake is getting short shrift for his work in Brokeback, and William Hurt wasn’t onscreen long enough to really deserve it, even though Beatrice Straight and Judi Dench both have won for appearing onscreen for less than 15 minutes. Dillon can only win if Crash sweeps (as some project), and Clooney strikes me as guy people like but not enough to give him an award for this kind of film.
The probable winner: Giamatti
My pick: Giamatti

Best Actress
Judi Dench in "Mrs. Henderson Presents"
Felicity Huffman in "Transamerica"
Keira Knightley in "Pride & Prejudice"
Charlize Theron in "North Country"
Reese Witherspoon in "Walk the Line"

This is Reese’s to lose. She owns the film and works her ass off to perform onstage. She also has a sterling reputation in Hollywood as a star it can boast with no scandal. Right role, right actress, right year. I love Hoffman’s other work, but I don’t see her winning in this role. Not enough people saw Theron or Dench’s films, and Keira’s nod seems like it was made to fill out the list.
The probable winner: Witherspoon
My pick: Witherspoon

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams in "Junebug"
Catherine Keener in "Capote”
Frances McDormand in "North Country”
Rachel Weisz in "The Constant Gardener"
Michelle Williams in "Brokeback Mountain"

This is perennially the tightest group to choose from; anyone could win. To give you an idea, children have won this twice: Tatum O’Neal and Anna Paquin. Marisa Tomei’s win in My Cousin Vinny is long rumored as a mistakenly read name the Academy is too embarrassed to fix. Weisz has the vocal momentum, and critics have openly supported Adams’s work. McDormand won before for Fargo. I like Williams’s chances. She of all the characters has to react for the audience as she realizes her husband loves another man without knowing how to respond. She did a fantastic job.
The probable winner: Weisz
My pick: Williams

Best Director
"Brokeback Mountain" Ang Lee
"Capote" Bennett Miller
"Crash" Paul Haggis
"Good Night, and Good Luck." George Clooney
"Munich" Steven Spielberg

Simply put, Brokeback doesn’t happen without Lee. If he doesn’t win for this, we will have a true scandal of the night. Miller is an actor stepping in as a first-time director, and that doesn’t mean he can’t win. Redford and Costner won for this first direction, both beating out Scorsese, for crying out loud. Spielberg’s inclusion is to honor the subject of the film. Crash is getting momentum as the pundit pick because of its subject matter, and because people want to write about something other than Brokeback.
The probable winner: Lee
My pick: Lee

Best Picture
"Brokeback Mountain”
"Capote"
"Crash"
"Good Night, and Good Luck"
"Munich"

Unlike some years, the best director nominations are the same as the best picture group. The winner here is not dependent on who wins best director. Chicago, Gladiator, and Shakespeare In Love all won best picture without their directors winning. And this is where Crash could slip by Brokeback. Some feel Brokeback can’t win because Hollywood is afraid of the political backlash. Some say it only wins because Hollywood is daring such a reaction to happen. But Hollywood loves a decade-spanning romance blocked by culture, and that’s what the film ultimately is. It wins because it’s a great film, not because it makes a great statement.
The probable winner: Brokeback Mountain
My pick: Brokeback Mountain

The Picture of the Day
This is an editorial cartoon by legendary artist Thomas Nast (who brought down the corrupt officials in New York’s Tammany Hall) in reaction to the death of Lincoln. It’s from the online version of Harper's Weekly, April 29, 1865 edition. You can see the whole issue here.

In the news
A new video obtained by the AP, shows Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco assuring the president that the levees had not been breached. This comes just a day after a video shows a weatherman warning the administration that the levees might not keep out hurricane waters.

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The NY Times is reporting that the GOP may consider a former Pentagon spokeswoman (free registration) to run against Hillary Clinton for the N.Y. senate seat. This follows the disastrous campaign of Jeanine F. Pirro as the GOP frontrunner in that state. Of course the prominent conservative talking heads in the media are convinced that Hillary is going to run for the presidency in 2008. They think a Senate loss two years before that election will kill her momentum.

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Here’s a special link for you: The online archives of This American Life. This week’s show, “Cat and Mouse,” is really good. David Sedaris is giving an evening of readings here in April, but you couldn’t drag Your Sister to the show.

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This is coming to the Cartoon Network this year:

Class of 3000. The half-hour series featuring a group of musically gifted kids at the WestleySchool for Performing Arts in Atlanta is set to premiere in November. When former student Sunny Bridges returns to regain something he lost on his way to fame, he brings sunshine to the lives of the culturally diverse students. The series was created by Outkast member Andre Benjamin, who will contribute music and his voice talent to the series. Other cast members are Tom Kenny, Crystal Scales (Static Shock), Jennifer Hale (The Powerpuff Girls), Janice Kawaye (Hi Hi Puffy AmiYumi) and Jeff Glen Bennet (Johnny Bravo). A dozen half-hour episodes and a one-hour premiere are being produced at Cartoon Network Studios in Burbank, Calif.

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And just for fun: Triumph The Comic Insult Dog goes to Chinatown.

Lent and "Lost" (no spoilers)

Your Sister stuck to her Lent guns and hit the gym again. She wears mighty cute workout clothes. Mighty cute. I did not go to the gym yet as I promised myself I wouldn’t until I finish the pile of paperwork she needs help with. School stuff, you know. The day I begin my non-PS2 Lent is the day I hear about this fantastic new game released on Tuesday. Grr.

“Lost” was new last night, and it was solid from start to finish. You have to catch up so we can yap about it. But if you start watching new episodes without seeing the rest of the first season, I think you’re brain would pop. The progress made in two years is both completely out of left field and strangely underwhelming. I mean, if you watch that spectacular first episode and then watch something from the last two months, you may as well be watching two different shows. I can’t tell if I’m happy with the direction they’ve gone, and I admit that’s perhaps because of a full year of online speculation. I’ve seen so many theories – and presented and amended my own – that I’m saturated by the myriad potential directions. It’s still a great show to watch, very well done on all levels. The best I can say about it is that the writers seem to know where they want to go and what the answers will be. If we get a satisfying conclusion when the series winds down, it may become the best, most accessible sci-fi show TV has produced since “Twilight Zone.” What’s that, you say? “Star Trek?” Nah, Fan fiction and nostalgia made that show last. The subsequent series all surpass what the original show presented, although the original “Next Generation” seasons are painfully dated. It took a few years before it became really good.

The Picture of the Day
I waited a few days to post this pending some proof that it’s fake. But apparently, it’s real. Let’s say it is. As much as I support wide-open debate, this smells instead like desperate spin.

In the news
A newly released administration video conference call tape shows the president and former FEMA chief Mike Brown were warned that the levees could be “topped” during Hurricane Katrina. Some are saying this counters the president’s subsequent comments that no one could predict the levees would break. I don’t think this is proof of an abject lie. It does however suggest that higher-ups failed to toke seriously the potential damage warnings. The end result is the same: FEMA dropped the ball, and while Bush can’t be held directly responsible for that, it does leave another bruise on his tenure. The continuing mismanagement of resources isn’t helping.

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Bush convinced India to join a nuclear treaty that would allow inspectors to check some of that country’s reactors. We’ll give them equipment and material even though they have yet to sign the proliferation treaty, just like Iran. Granted, India is a lot more friendly to us than Iran. A suicide bombing before Bush’s visit killed a U.S. diplomat in Pakistan.

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The cardinal of Los Angeles is leading the effort within the Catholic Church to ignore the Immigration Reform Act calling for churches to validate immigration status before offering services. The cardinal and a group of church officers say they won’t obey the act if it becomes a law, even if it means jailtime. I have to say I agree with them. The church has historically been a locus of sanctuary; it’s almost a cliché in storytelling. You can’t expect priests to turn in illegals or turn the needy away without paperwork. They can’t ask for a green card while delivering the wafers. If the government wants to grab these people that badly, they need to beef up border security, not rely on the clergy to turn them in.

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The NFL is nearing a fiasco as talks break down between labor and management. The argument is, of course, over money. The players want a bigger percentage of the collective bargaining agreement; this provides for all teams to share an equal percentage of a profit pool and limits teams to a salary cap. They can only spend so much on payroll. The talks break down just a free agency begins, and the question looms: If there is no new deal on the CBA, will the 2007 season have any salary caps? Will owners have any limits on what they can offer players around the league in order to build a Super Bowl-ready team? If you’re a lowly perennial cellar-dweller team, would you spend everything to make a team that can instantly contend? The absolute worst outcome would be another player lockout, like the one that lead to the scab-player season. That would be worse than no season at all, as with pro hockey last year. I think this will get worked out; the NFL is the nation’s biggest sport culturally and too many would lose too much by its stumbling.

Lent

As Ash Wednesday loomed, Your Sister and I hashed out our Lent surrenders. I, of course, am not Anglican, but since we’ve dated I’ve joined her in solidarity. This year, I’m giving up the PlayStation2. Your Sister will start exercising again. We both need to; the holiday season has bequeathed many parties and leftovers, and we need to shed the winter weight. The cold weather, hearty meals, and TiFaux have lead to a couch-based hibernation. She thinks she’ll need to bring more work home, and that’s fine with me. I can work on the comics while she dishes out grades. Also, we’re starting to look at the yard and making mental lists of what needs to be done with it.

Speaking of TV time, we watched “Sex and the City” last night. I think Your Sister has added a new man to her mental harem: David Duchovny. He played the high-school sweetheart of Carrie. In one scene, he shows up at her door in a white Izod polo shirt, and I believe I heard Your Sister gasp. This makes, what, 13 guys on her wish list now.

The new glasses frames don’t work with my previous short haircut, and I’ve grown out my hair a little. I had it cut yesterday to clean it up and got my first cut from a guy since I was in high school. Did a good job too, but he was meticulous to the point of being obsessive. I thought I was never going to get home. I go to a local stylists hop in the Wal-Mart plaza because they do a good job for the $8 price. (Note: I’ve gotten bad haircuts for $20 and bad haircuts for $7. A good haircut for $8 is something that does not embarrass me). The only problem with that shop is that the women tend to get each other worked up over their lousy husbands and boyfriends. If you happen to sit in their chairs while they’re in a rant, they’ll chop your hair like they’re pruning hedges. I’m surprised I can still wear glasses with the way they’ve snipped my ears. Why do I go back? Good haircuts for $8.

The Picture of the Day
Making the online rounds today is this photo of Harry Potter star Emma Watson striking a pose. She’s 15 and British so swigging Corona should be OK for her native fans, but it’s bound to give her street cred in the States as a Paris/Lindsay/ partygirl. After seeing the most recent film and Ralph Fiennes rocking it as Voldemort, I’m squarely in the bad-guy’s corner.

In the news
More bombings in Iraq today. That curfew may need to go back in effect.

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Bush heads to India today after stopping over in Afghanistan to talk shop with new president Hamid Karzai.

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NPR’s “On the Media” host Bob Garfield talked with Farnaz Fassihi, a reporter with the Wall Street Journal about media coverage of Iraq:

BOB GARFIELD: When you read criticism of the press in general, that it is somehow so fixated on bad news that it doesn't report the good, that it's essentially suppressing the good news out of Iraq, what do you all say to one another? How do you react?
FARNAZ FASSIHI: I can just say that if there were five car bombs going off in New York and 50 people kidnapped a day, I'm sure that metro reporters would be writing those stories and not talking about the school that was painted. When you're sitting in Iraq and putting your neck on the line to try to bring as balanced a story as possible, it's very frustrating to hear criticism like that, because you know, as a professional reporter, that the only reason you're there is because you want to convey the truth. And I can say that everyone is trying to go out their extra mile to find out exactly what's happening there, good or bad, to try to find progress, obstacles, frustration. And I think, considering, we've done a pretty good job. I'm proud of what my colleagues have achieved.

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Several former members of the “West Wing” cast are returning for the last episodes, including Rob Lowe. The new show from “WW”creator Aaron Sorkin is still being cast, but WW alums have joined the project: behind the scenes at a faux Saturday Night Live. Sounds a lot like “SportsNight,” the Sorkin show that preceded (and created character templates for) “West Wing.”

National Pancake Day

A slow day at Maison Debacle. Your Sister worked a little later to get ready for tomorrow’s Parent Open House at the school. Tonight she’s at school until 7, knocking us out of the church’s Shrove Tuesday Pancake Dinner. I was looking forward to it. I haven’t had pancakes since we three went to Biltmore House and ate at McDonald’s. I still might be able to drown my pancake sorrows at Ihop, offering free pancakes today with a charity donation. You might also remember during that breakfast that we joked about giant apes auditioning for the lead role in King Kong. That was a fun day. And then it got funner at the winery tour, trying our Italian accent on Sangiovese and getting pickled on copious free samples. Ah, joy, thy name is “free hooch.”

The weekly Wings and Wrestling was fun as always as the WWE sets up storylines for its annual blow-out Super Bowl pay-per-view, WrestleMania. I'll post the angles before the big show so you can talk your apartment buddies into watching and howling at the show.

The Picture of the Day
I designed this week’s logo at The-W.com, the wrestling message board. OK, “designed” is misleading; I stole the title from the Wonder Woman TV series. I post there under the name of my old wrestling newspaper column alias, Matt Tracker.

In the news
The curfew in Baghdad was lifted, and five bombings promptly hit the city. About 1,300 Iraqis have died since last week’s shrine bombing.

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The Supreme Court will hear the case involving Playmate Anna Nichole Smith and her dead husband’s family over the rights to his billions. The Supremes are weighing whether federal courts can rule in state probate decisions.

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The Coast Guard says it couldn’t give its OK to the ports deal citing lapses in intelligence information about the prospective Dubai owners.

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The newest CBS poll says the presidents’ approval rating has slipped to 34%. That’s a new low.

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The founder of Domino’s Pizza is reportedly trying to establish a town in Florida that will be governed by strict Catholic dogma.

I'm An Idiot #274

Friday was the usual low-key night: dinner, couch time, early to bed. The evening acts as an airlock through which we prepare for the weekend’s reduced pressure. Nothing gets accomplished on Friday night; we slough off work and slowly wind down.

So when Saturday emerges, we’re ready for pretty much anything. A very weird emotional dream left me worn out, and I had no energy when I woke up. Instead of hitting the gym, I hid in the Greg Cave and worked on the computer. I had noticed that my pro work art files were missing. They weren’t on the new, snazzy PC I bought In December and they weren’t on my at-work computer. As I swept through the new PC, running searches under all possible names, I realized: a) I couldn’t find any of the professional work I had done over the last ten years; and b) they also might no longer be on the old PC. Cue the fainting.

You recall that the old PC’s Windows ME fell apart. I couldn’t run any Windows options save shutting down the computer. If I ran a search, it locked up. If I tried to open My Computer, it locked up. I decided to get a new PC instead of wiping the Windows and starting over on the old system. Fortunately, I could use a non-Windows CD-burning program to copy all my files. In doing this, I apparently never copied my pro stuff. So Sunday saw me unearthing the old PC, plugging it back together, finding the old files, breathing a mammoth sigh of relief, and copying them to CDs. It took a while because my old PC’s CD burner was glacial.

But back to Saturday. That morning, before we departed for some shopping, I watched a little of the 1967 Barefoot in the Park movie. It featured a screenplay written by Neil Simon and three stars who originated the Broadway roles: Robert Redford as Paul, Mildred Natwick as his mother-in-law, and Herb Edelman as the Phone Guy. You might remember the recent NY Times review of the revived play and my surprise at how anyone could make the play unfunny. After seeing the film, I see how this can happen. The movie is SLOW. I suspect the actors are waiting a beat to deliver their lines to give audiences a chance to laugh. This kills the spirit of the dialogue. Simon’s scripts are meant to be delivered quick and straight. You don’t have top act them so much as clearly enunciate. Those air pockets are a bad idea. You don’t see that in the film version of “The Odd Couple” or the other, better Simon adaptations on film. I acknowledge that films of the ‘60s work on a different pace than current films, but that’s no excuse. The Marx Brothers’ better films – A Night At The Opera, Duck Soup – were made 20 years earlier. They have those pauses, and they still crack you up. The Barefoot film just makes you chuckle. I also suspect that the feeling of betrayal over Jane Fonda’s Vietnam actions is exacerbated by the deep disappointment of huge, misguided efforts committed by someone who was, at that time, so stunningly hot. Imagine the current film pin-ups – Scarlet, Angelina, Jessica – cheering for the Taliban. Jane is distractingly cute in Barefoot.

After that we tried to buy cell phones at Best Buy. Looks like Verizon will be our only option for coverage here in the mountains. We perused the plan rates and noticed the fine print fees and even settled on phones with an acceptable amount of bells and whistles. This took about 20 minutes. We wanted to be confident in what we were doing, new as we are to whole affair. We get settled and ask for some help. And we’re promptly told they don’t have enough phones in stock. Quoth the Homer: Urge to kill rising. So no phones. Not this weekend. And we may be without for some time. If they merely had enough inventory, we’d be all en-cell-enated. I suspect (as I do often) that they short-stock those phones to bait-and-switch us to the higher-end, more expensive models.

Saturday night we attended the retirement party of Your Sister’s friends. We were there about three hours, shooting the bull with all sorts of school folks and making plans for house parties. We’re hosting two sets of couples from her church on Friday for lasagna. We were hoping to visit one of the school-friend couples Thursday, but I don’t the schedules will work.

But back to Sunday, I helped Your Sister record scores on schoolwork, and we snacked for dinner. I finally showed her “Smile Time,” the most accessible of episodes from the fifth season of Angel. This is where the big, dark vampire hero is magically turned into a puppet. She laughed. When she was supposed to, too. I also got to show her the actress we met at DragonCon. Unfortunately, she didn’t do anything particularly funny in this episode so Your Sister thinks I just have a crush on her.

The Picture of the Day
From here on, Monday will be Sketch Day. This one was an extended doodle from a few months back.

In the news
The Sunni Iraqi government delegation is willing to go back to the table if the Shiites release some occupied mosques. This follows a weekend when Baghdad shut down at the borders and under daytime curfew.